📈 The Irbis Index September 2024

Welcome to the September 2024 edition of The Irbis Index!

The Irbis Index is a monthly dashboard that provides a comprehensive overview of changes within various industries, centered around our core expertise – logistics. 

We’re curious about new ways to leverage asymmetry of information to enhance investor returns.

The Irbis Index is a tool we are developing to reveal hidden correlations between global macroeconomic trends and events and the industries in which we’re investing. 

The Index tracks the market by highlighting key trends of large players across related industries.

On the 5th of each month, we issue the updated Index covering the preceding month, along with all associated trends.

Irbis Index Key:

Industrial REITs: XLON:SGRO, XLON:BBOX, XLON:SHED, XLON:WHR

(New!) Cold Storage and Logistics: XNYS:COLD, XCSE:DFDS, XPAR:STF, NASDAQ: LINE

Lineage, following their IPO on 25th July, now replaces Nichirei in the Irbis Index

Road Freight: XNAS: JBHT, XNYS: XPO, XNAS:ODFL, XNYS:KNX

(New!) Industrial Manufacturers: NYSE: SW, XFRA:KGX, XAMS:CABKA, OTCM:DFKCY

On the 5th of July, Smurfit Kappa completed its acquisition of WestRock, forming Smurfit Westrock, one of the world’s largest packaging companies

Food Producers: XSWX:NESNE, XBRU:ABI, XPAR:BN, XAMS:HEIA, XLON:ABF

Food Retailers: XLON:AE08, XPAR:CA, XLON:SBRY, XAMS:AD

Food Production Equipment Manufacturers: XLON:0R33, XFRA:RAA, XLON:HWDN, OTCM:ELUXY

To find The Irbis Index for August 2024, click here.

Relative stock performance (Oct ‘23 - Sep ‘24) 

In September, S&P500 experienced the sharpest increase, followed closely by Food Production Equipment, and Industrial Manufacturers in line with Cold Storage and Logistics.

Meanwhile, the stock price for Road Freight was the only tracked industry to experience a decrease during the end of September

Average EV/EBITA multiples

In September, three of the six industries tracked — Cold Storage and Logistics, Industrial Manufacturers, and Food Producers — saw a decline in their EV/EBITDA multiples.

Cold Storage and Logistics remains the industry tracked with the highest EV/EBITDA multiple of 19.37x.

On the other hand, Food Retailers continued to command the lowest EV/EBITDA multiple, although the industry recorded an increase in the average EV/EBITDA multiple from 5.60x in August to 5.66x in September.

Average Debt/Equity ratio (Industrial REITs)

The debt-to-equity ratio of Industrial REITs showed a slight decline over the months, dropping from 47.8% in July to a stable 46.7% in both August and September.

Top positive correlations

September was the first month where the strongest positive correlation was observed between the S&P 500 and Food Production Equipment.

Top negative correlations

The largest negative correlation was observed between Food Producers and Commodities (Energy) which reported a correlation of -0.64 in September.

Target price variations

In September, the ranking of the top positive target price variations changed.

Cabka saw the largest increase, with a rise of over 10% compared to the previous month.

Meanwhile, Warehouse REIT has failed to make the list for the third consecutive month.

This month, Rational AG remains on the list of negative target price variations, with a slight improvement from -32.5% in August to -32.4% in September.

Additionally, Danone makes a new appearance on the list, showing a price variation of -2.4% this month.

Energy

In September, compared to August, the primary sources of power remained largely unchanged across all countries tracked by the Irbis Index, with solar energy continuing to be the leading source for most countries throughout the summer months.

Belgium’s top source changed from Solar (41%) to Nuclear (36%) and Great Britain’s top source changed from Gas (33%) to Nuclear (23%).

If you have any questions about The Irbis Index, please reply to this email with your inquiries, comments, or feedback.

Glossary:

  • Correlation: Statistical measure that determines how two variables move in relation to each other

  • Mean Absolute Error: Percentage deviation of predictions to observed prices over the past year

  • Actual Price: A company’s current value or its market value

  • Target Price: Indicator of how analysts collectively view the fair value of a given stock based on current and past market performance

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