📈 The Irbis Index August 2024

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The Irbis Index
September 06, 2024

Welcome to the August 2024 edition of The Irbis Index!

The Irbis Index is a monthly dashboard that provides a comprehensive overview of changes within various industries, centered around our core expertise – logistics. 

We’re curious about new ways to leverage asymmetry of information to enhance investor returns.

The Irbis Index is a tool we are developing to reveal hidden correlations between global macroeconomic trends and events and the industries in which we’re investing. 

The Index tracks the market by highlighting key trends of large players across related industries.

On the 5th of each month, we issue the updated Index covering the preceding month, along with all associated trends.

Irbis Index Key:

Industrial REITs: XLON:SGRO, XLON:BBOX, XLON:SHED, XLON:WHR

(New!) Cold Storage and Logistics: XNYS:COLD, XCSE:DFDS, XPAR:STF, NASDAQ: LINE

Lineage, following their IPO on 25th July, now replaces Nichirei in the Irbis Index

Road Freight: XNAS: JBHT, XNYS: XPO, XNAS:ODFL, XNYS:KNX

(New!) Industrial Manufacturers: NYSE: SW, XFRA:KGX, XAMS:CABKA, OTCM:DFKCY

On the 5th of July, Smurfit Kappa completed its acquisition of WestRock, forming Smurfit Westrock, one of the world’s largest packaging companies

Food Producers: XSWX:NESNE, XBRU:ABI, XPAR:BN, XAMS:HEIA, XLON:ABF

Food Retailers: XLON:AE08, XPAR:CA, XLON:SBRY, XAMS:AD

Food Production Equipment Manufacturers: XLON:0R33, XFRA:RAA, XLON:HWDN, OTCM:ELUXY

To find The Irbis Index for July 2024, click here.

Relative stock performance (Sep ‘23 - Aug ‘24) 

In August, Food Production Equipment experienced the sharpest increase, followed closely by Cold Storage and Logistics, and Industrial Manufacturers in line with the S&P500.

Meanwhile, the stock price for Road Freight was the only tracked industry to experience a decrease in August.

Average EV/EBITA multiples

In August, three out of the six industries experienced an increase in their EV/EBITDA multiple, Industrial Manufacturers, Food Retailers, and Food Production Equipment.   

Cold Storage and Logistics remains the industry tracked with the highest EV/EBITDA multiple of 20.24x.

On the other hand, Food Retailers continued to command the lowest EV/EBITDA multiple, though the industry recorded an increase in the average EV/EBITDA multiple from 5.40x in July to 5.60x in August.

Average Debt/Equity ratio (Industrial REITs)

The debt-to-equity ratio of Industrial REITs continued to decrease over the months from 50.0% in June, to 47.8% in July, to 46.7% in August.

Top positive correlations

The largest positive correlation is between the S&P500 and Meat, Fish, and Dairy for the fourth month in a row.

Top negative correlations

The largest negative correlation was observed between Industrial REITs and Commodities (Energy) which reported a correlation of -0.78 last month.

Target price variations

In August, the ranking of the top positive target price variations remained unchanged from July.

Cabka saw the largest increase among the companies, exceeding 10% compared to the previous month.

Meanwhile, Warehouse REIT has failed to make the list for the second consecutive month.

This month, Rational AG remains on the list of negative target price variations, with a variation of -32.5%.

Additionally, Ahold Delhaize is a new entry on the list, with a price variation of -2.4% this month.

Energy

In August, the majority of the top sources of power remained the same across all countries tracked on the Irbis Index compared to July, with Solar remaining as the top source for most countries during the summer months.

Belgium’s top source changed from Nuclear (38%) to Solar (41%) and Luxembourg’s top source changed from Solar (13%) to Wind (21%).

If you have any questions about The Irbis Index, please reply to this email with your inquiries, comments, or feedback.

Glossary:

  • Correlation: Statistical measure that determines how two variables move in relation to each other

  • Mean Absolute Error: Percentage deviation of predictions to observed prices over the past year

  • Actual Price: A company’s current value or its market value

  • Target Price: Indicator of how analysts collectively view the fair value of a given stock based on current and past market performance

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