📈 The Irbis Index March 2025

Welcome to the March 2025 edition of The Irbis Index!

We’re curious about new ways to leverage asymmetry of information to enhance investor returns.

The Irbis Index is a tool we are developing to reveal hidden correlations between global macroeconomic trends and events and the industries in which we’re investing. 

The Index tracks the market by highlighting key trends of large players across related industries.

On the 5th of each month, we issue the updated Index covering the preceding month, along with all associated trends.

We also provide weekly updates on the Irbis Logistics Transportation Index (ILTA), which tracks the logistics and transportation industry across Europe and North America.

Source: finance.yahoo.com.

To find The Irbis Index for February 2025, click here.

Relative stock performance (Feb ‘24 - Mar ‘25) 

Road Freight lost some of its February gains, softening in March amid continued volatility.

S&P 500 pulled back slightly from February highs but maintained a strong position overall.

Food Production Equipment slipped in March after a modest rise earlier, while Food Retailers remained relatively steady.

Meanwhile, Food Producers and Cold Storage & Logistics continued to decline, extending their downward trend from previous months.

Average EV/EBITA multiples

In March, all six industries tracked saw a decline in their EV/EBITDA multiples compared to February.

Cold Storage and Logistics continued to lead with the highest multiple at 16.07x, despite a decrease from 16.72x the previous month.

Food Production Equipment, already lagging in February, extended its downward trajectory, falling from 14.72x to 13.08.

Meanwhile, Food Retailers maintained the lowest multiple, declining further from 5.94x to 5.09x.

Average Debt/Equity ratio (Industrial REITs)

The debt-to-equity ratio of Industrial REITs dipped slightly in March to 47.6%, ending a four-month streak of stability at 48.3%.

Top positive correlations

The highest positive correlation in March was observed between Industrial REITs and Food Producers at 0.76.

Meanwhile, the correlation between Industrial REITs and Cold Storage & Logistics weakened notably, dropping to 0.43 in March.

Top negative correlations

The largest negative correlation in March was observed between S&P500 and Food Producers at -0.82, highlighting a strong inverse relationship.

Target price variations

All companies, except Tesco, saw an increase in their target price variations compared to February.

Tesco recorded a 104.7% variation - a decline from 116.9% in February.

Daifuku led with a 147.0% price variation, rebounding sharply from 109.1% in February.

Cabka followed at 132.0%, rising from 114.7% last month.

Meanwhile, DFDS showed the most improvement, jumping from 49.4% to 68.2%, reversing its prior downward trend.

Associated British Foods and Warehouse REIT featured on the list of negative target price variations in March.

Associated British Foods remained unchanged at -98.8%, continuing to hold the steepest negative target price variation for another month.

Warehouse REIT replaced Rational AG on the list, with a target price variation of -1.9%, indicating a modest downside deviation in March.

Energy

In March, Nuclear and Gas continued to dominate as the primary energy sources across most European countries.

Electricity prices declined across the board in several nations, with Great Britain experiencing the sharpest drop at -16.6%, followed by the Netherlands (-10.5%), Belgium (-10.0%), France (-10.0%), and Germany (-8.8%).

Germany’s main energy source remained Coal (27%), unchanged from February.

Italy continued to rely heavily on Gas (70%), maintaining its position as the most gas-dependent country, while Luxembourg saw a rise in electricity prices by +6.4%, though Wind (8%) remained its top source.

Spain and Italy’s primary sources was Nuclear (23%) and Gas (70%), respectively.

Meanwhile, France and Belgium continued their strong reliance on Nuclear energy, at 66% and 32%, respectively.

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