📈 The Irbis Index February 2025

Welcome to the February 2025 edition of The Irbis Index!

We’re curious about new ways to leverage asymmetry of information to enhance investor returns.

The Irbis Index is a tool we are developing to reveal hidden correlations between global macroeconomic trends and events and the industries in which we’re investing. 

The Index tracks the market by highlighting key trends of large players across related industries.

On the 5th of each month, we issue the updated Index covering the preceding month, along with all associated trends.

We also provide weekly updates on the Irbis Logistics Transportation Index (ILTA), which tracks the logistics and transportation industry across Europe and North America.

Source: finance.yahoo.com.

To find The Irbis Index for January 2025, click here.

Relative stock performance (Jan ‘24 - Feb ‘25) 

Road Freight continued its upward momentum in February, sustaining the strong recovery seen in January, despite ongoing volatility.

S&P 500 maintained its positive trend, reaching new highs, while Food Production Equipment saw a moderate increase.

Meanwhile, Food Producers and Cold Storage & Logistics continued to decline, extending their downward trend from previous months.

Average EV/EBITA multiples

In February, EV/EBITDA multiples declined across all industries, except for Food Producers and Food Retailers, which saw a slight increase from January.

Cold Storage and Logistics maintained the highest EV/EBITDA multiple at 16.72x, though it dipped slightly from 16.97x in the previous month.

Food Production Equipment, which had led for three consecutive months, experienced a sharp decline from 17.84x to 14.72x, falling below Cold Storage and Logistics.

Food Retailers retained the lowest EV/EBITDA multiple, despite a modest rise from 5.58x in January to 5.94x in February.

Average Debt/Equity ratio (Industrial REITs)

The debt-to-equity ratio of Industrial REITs has remained constant since November, at 48.3%.

Top positive correlations

The highest positive correlation in February was observed between Meat, Fish, & Dairy and Commodities (Livestock) at 0.86.

The correlation between Meat, Fish, & Dairy and Commodities (Grains) followed closely at 0.84, slightly lower but still highly significant.

Top negative correlations

The largest negative correlation in February was observed between Meat, Fish, & Dairy and Commodities (Metals) at -0.94, highlighting a strong inverse relationship

Target price variations

All companies saw a decline in their target price variations compared to January.

Tesco led with a 116.9% price variation, slightly down from 117.6% in January.

Cabka followed at 114.7%, marking a drop from 126.9% last month.

Daifuku, which previously held the highest variation, fell to 109.1%, a significant decrease from 149.0% in January.

Meanwhile, DFDS continued its downward trend, slipping from 52.8% to 49.4% in February.

Associated British Foods and Rational AG remained on the list of negative target price variations.

While Associated British Foods held steady at -98.8%, Rational AG saw a further decline, with its price variation dropping from -5.5% in January to -8.3% in February.

Energy

In February, Gas and Nuclear remained the primary source of power in most countries.

Germany’s top power source shifted from Gas (23%) in January to Coal (27%) in February.

Meanwhile, Italy saw a sharp increase in Gas usage, rising from 33% to 70%, making it the most gas-dependent country this month.

Luxembourg’s top energy source changed again, dropping from Biomass (12%) to Wind (8%), while Great Britain saw a significant shift from Gas (45%) to Wind (33%) as its leading energy source.

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