📈 The Irbis Index June 2025

Welcome to the June 2025 edition of The Irbis Index!

We’re curious about new ways to leverage asymmetry of information to enhance investor returns.

The Irbis Index is a tool we are developing to reveal hidden correlations between global macroeconomic trends and events and the industries in which we’re investing. 

The Index tracks the market by highlighting key trends of large players across related industries.

On the 5th of each month, we issue the updated Index covering the preceding month, along with all associated trends.

We also provide weekly updates on the Irbis Logistics Transportation Index (ILTA), which tracks the logistics and transportation industry across Europe and North America.

Source: finance.yahoo.com.

To find The Irbis Index for April 2025, click here.

Relative stock performance (Jul ‘24 - Jun ‘25) 

Food Retailers extended their strong rally into June, building on May’s gains and maintaining a clear lead among sectors.

S&P 500 edged higher again in June, reinforcing its steady upward trajectory and relative market strength. Road Freight also rebounded slightly in June.

Food Production Equipment stabilised after recent weakness, suggesting a possible bottoming out.

Meanwhile, Cold Storage & Logistics and Food Producers showed little movement, staying subdued and extending their broader downtrend.

Average EV/EBITA multiples

In June, Cold Storage and Logistics (14.80x) and Food Production Equipment (14.14x) commanded the highest EV/EBITDA multiples, indicating strong market valuation.

Meanwhile, Food Retailers persist at the lower end of the spectrum, with a modest 4.63x multiple, underscoring muted market confidence in the sector's profitability or growth outlook.

Average Debt/Equity ratio (Industrial REITs)

The debt-to-equity ratio of Industrial REITs dipped slightly in June to 44.4%.

Top positive correlations

The highest positive correlation in June was observed between Road Freight and Food Production Equipment at 0.77.

Meanwhile, the correlation between Cold Storage & Logistics and Road Freight weakened notably, dropping to 0.51 in June.

Top negative correlations

The largest negative correlation in June was observed between S&P500 and Food Producers at -0.51, highlighting a strong inverse relationship.

Target price variations

Daifuku (Industrial Manufacturer) shows the highest positive target price variation at +136.7%, signalling strong analyst optimism likely tied to automation and logistics sector growth.

With a +107.5% gap, Tesco (Food Retailer) reflects substantial upside potential.

At +105.5%, Cabka (Pallet Manufacturer) is seen as significantly undervalued.

Associated British Foods remains at -98.9%, continuing to hold the steepest negative gap for another month.

A -12.8% gap in Warehouse REIT (Industrial REITs) signals a mild underperformance, potentially tied to the sector’s recent stagnation after earlier gains.

Energy

In June, Belgium saw electricity prices rise by +7.0%, with Nuclear (25%) remaining its primary energy source.

Germany recorded a -6.4% drop in electricity prices, continuing to rely primarily on Solar (25%).

Luxembourg experienced a -5.0% decline in prices, with Solar (16%) as its top energy source.

The Netherlands faced a +5.4% price increase, even as Solar (39%) remained the dominant power source.

France, Italy, Spain, and Great Britain relied primarily on Nuclear (65%), Gas (21%), Solar (26%), and Wind (27%), respectively as their top sources of power.

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