📈 The Irbis Index April 2025

Welcome to the April 2025 edition of The Irbis Index!

We’re curious about new ways to leverage asymmetry of information to enhance investor returns.

The Irbis Index is a tool we are developing to reveal hidden correlations between global macroeconomic trends and events and the industries in which we’re investing. 

The Index tracks the market by highlighting key trends of large players across related industries.

On the 5th of each month, we issue the updated Index covering the preceding month, along with all associated trends.

We also provide weekly updates on the Irbis Logistics Transportation Index (ILTA), which tracks the logistics and transportation industry across Europe and North America.

Source: finance.yahoo.com.

To find The Irbis Index for March 2025, click here.

Relative stock performance (Mar ‘24 - Apr ‘25) 

Road Freight rebounded in April, posting a notable gain to lead performance among tracked industries.

Industrial REITs and Food Retailers remained relatively steady, showing limited movement through April.

Food Production Equipment began to stabilise after a sharp decline, with a mild increase by late April.

Meanwhile, Food Producers, Industrial Manufacturers, and Cold Storage & Logistics continued to face downward pressure.

Average EV/EBITA multiples

In April, most industries experienced a decrease in their EV/EBITDA multiples compared to March.

Cold Storage and Logistics remains the industry tracked with the highest EV/EBITDA multiple of 15.28x, though decreasing from 16.07x in March.

Food Production Equipment also continued its downward trajectory, falling from 13.08x in March to 12.58x in April - its second consecutive monthly drop.

On the other hand, Food Producers and Food Retailers bucked the trend with modest increases from March.

-        Food Producers rose from 10.47x to 10.76x

-        Food Retailers edged up from 5.09x to 5.16x

Average Debt/Equity ratio (Industrial REITs)

The debt-to-equity ratio of Industrial REITs held steady in April at 47.6%, showing no change from March.  

Top positive correlations

The highest positive correlation in April was observed between Industrial REITs and Food Producers at 0.82.

Meanwhile, the correlation between S&P500 and Food Production Equipment was lowest at 0.46 in April.

Top negative correlations

The largest negative correlation in April was observed between S&P500 and Food Producers at -0.76, highlighting a strong inverse relationship.

Target price variations

All companies, saw a decrease in their target price variations compared to March.

-        Cabka led the group with a 119.7% variation, down from 132.0% in March.

-        Daifuku followed at 116.3%, dropping from the previous high of 147.0%.

-        Tesco recorded the lowest among them at 95.9%, continuing its decline from 104.7% in March and 116.9% in February.

Associated British Foods continued to hold the steepest negative target price variation in April at -98.0%, slightly improving from -98.8% in March.

ODFL (Old Dominion Freight Line) entered the list with a variation of -3.7%, replacing Warehouse REIT, which had recorded -1.9% the previous month.

Energy

In April, electricity prices dropped significantly across most European countries.

Germany recorded the sharpest decline at -18.3%, followed closely by Belgium at -18.0%, Netherlands at -17.0%, Luxembourg at -15.6%, and Great Britain at -12.5% drop.

A major shift in energy sourcing was observed, with solar power emerging as the top source in four countries: Germany, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and Spain.

Germany, which was coal-reliant in March, transitioned to solar (23%) as its primary source.

Great Britain shifted from wind to gas (26%).

France and Belgium continued to rely heavily on nuclear, at 67% and 22%, respectively.

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