📈 The Irbis Index January 2025

Welcome to the January 2025 edition of The Irbis Index!

We’re curious about new ways to leverage asymmetry of information to enhance investor returns.

The Irbis Index is a tool we are developing to reveal hidden correlations between global macroeconomic trends and events and the industries in which we’re investing. 

The Index tracks the market by highlighting key trends of large players across related industries.

On the 5th of each month, we issue the updated Index covering the preceding month, along with all associated trends.

We also provide weekly updates on the Irbis Logistics Transportation Index (ILTA), which tracks the logistics and transportation industry across Europe and North America.

Source: finance.yahoo.com.

To find The Irbis Index for December 2024, click here.

Relative stock performance (Feb ‘24 - Jan ‘25) 

Road Freight rebounded strongly in January after a significant decline in December, showing increased volatility but maintaining an overall upward trend.

S&P 500 maintained its positive momentum, followed by a recovery in Food Production Equipment.

Meanwhile, Food Producers and Cold Storage & Logistics continued to decline.

Average EV/EBITA multiples

In January, EV/EBITDA multiples rose across all industries except for Industrial Manufacturers, which experienced a decline from December.

For the third consecutive month, Food Production Equipment maintained the highest EV/EBITDA multiple at 17.84x, surpassing the usual leaders, Cold Storage and Logistics.

Meanwhile, Food Retailers continued to have the lowest EV/EBITDA multiple, though it edged up from 5.45x in December to 5.58x in January.

Average Debt/Equity ratio (Industrial REITs)

The debt-to-equity ratio of Industrial REITs has remained constant since November, at 48.3%.

Top positive correlations

In January, the strongest positive correlation was observed between Meat, Fish & Dairy and Commodities (Grains), though it declined from December's high of 0.81.

Top negative correlations

For the third consecutive month, the strongest negative correlation was between the S&P 500 and Food Producers, with a correlation of -0.73 in December and -0.64 in November.

Target price variations

The top companies with the highest positive price variations saw notable changes from December.

While Daifuku and Cabka retained their positions, their percentage gains increased slightly to 149.0% and 126.9%, respectively.

In contrast, DFDS experienced a sharp drop, falling from 147.9% in December to just 52.8% in January.

Anheuser-Busch InBev, a food producer, dropped off the list this month, making way for Tesco, which reported a 117.6% price variation.

This month, Associated British Foods and Rational AG remained on the list of negative target price variations, with declines of -98.8% and -5.5%, respectively, in January.

Meanwhile, Tesco, which had a -97.8% variation in December, dropped off the list, signaling an improvement in its target price performance.

Energy

In January, Gas remained the dominant power source in most countries, while Nuclear continued to lead in Belgium and France.

Luxembourg's primary energy source shifted from Wind (11%) in December to Biomass (12%) in January.

Meanwhile, Germany and Italy saw their top sources change from Wind to Gas.

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