📈 The Irbis Index December 2024

Welcome to the December 2024 edition of The Irbis Index!

We’re curious about new ways to leverage asymmetry of information to enhance investor returns.

The Irbis Index is a tool we are developing to reveal hidden correlations between global macroeconomic trends and events and the industries in which we’re investing. 

The Index tracks the market by highlighting key trends of large players across related industries.

On the 5th of each month, we issue the updated Index covering the preceding month, along with all associated trends.

We also provide weekly updates on the Irbis Logistics Transportation Index (ILTA), which tracks the logistics and transportation industry across Europe and North America.

Source: finance.yahoo.com.

To find The Irbis Index for November 2024, click here.

Irbis Logistics Transportation Average

The Irbis Logistics Transportation Average has seen a slight recovery from its end-of-December lows, currently standing at $914.74.

The logistics and transportation sector shows mixed but generally positive signals at the beginning of the year, with the overall trend remaining positive.

Biggest gainers:

• GXO Logistics (GXO) surged by 5.25% in the last week, making it the strongest performer in the index.

• Canadian National Railway (CNI) rose 3.5%, showing solid strength among rail operators.

• Zebra Technologies (ZBRA) gained 3.78%, building on its strong momentum from last year, during which it achieved an impressive annual gain of over 50%.

• Matson Inc (MATX) added 1.93%, contributing positively to the marine shipping subsector.

For more information about ILTA, historical performance, methodology, breakdown by sector and industry, and comparison to major world indices, please visit irbisindex.com.

Key Trends for December ‘24:

Relative stock performance (Jan ‘24 - Dec ‘24) 

In December, most industries experienced a decline, followed by a slight recovery – in line with the S&P500.

Road Freight experienced the sharpest decline, following a large incline between October and November.

Average EV/EBITA multiples

In December, all six industries saw a decline in their EV/EBITDA multiples.

Food Production Equipment maintained the highest EV/EBITDA multiple for the second consecutive month, reaching 17.73x, surpassing the usual leaders, Cold Storage and Logistics.

Meanwhile, Food Retailers continued to hold the lowest EV/EBITDA multiple, slipping slightly from 5.46x in November to 5.45x in December.

Average Debt/Equity ratio (Industrial REITs)

The debt-to-equity ratio of Industrial REITs has remained constant since November, at 48.3%.

Top positive correlations

The strongest positive correlation in December was between Food Production Equipment and Commodities (Grains), though it declined from 0.85 in November.

Top negative correlations

The largest negative correlation was observed between the S&P 500 and Food Producers, marking the second consecutive month, with a correlation of -0.64 reported in November.

Target price variations

The top three companies with positive price variations remained unchanged from November, with minimal differences in percentage changes between the two months.

Electrolux, a food production equipment company, dropped off the list this month, replaced by Anheuser-Busch InBev, which recorded a 53.4% price variation.

This month, Rational AG remains on the list of negative target price variations, though its decline improved from -11.1% in November 2024 to -4.4% in December 2024.

Energy

In December, the primary sources of power across countries tracked by the Irbis Index remained largely consistent with November, with Gas and Wind continuing to dominate as the leading sources in most countries during the fall months.

However, Italy's top power source shifted from Gas (41%) to Wind (31%), while Spain's changed from Wind (24%) to Gas (26%).

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