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- 📈 The Irbis Index July 2024
📈 The Irbis Index July 2024
The Irbis Index
August 05, 2024
Welcome to the July 2024 edition of The Irbis Index!
The Irbis Index is a monthly dashboard that provides a comprehensive overview of changes within various industries, centered around our core expertise – logistics.
We’re curious about new ways to leverage asymmetry of information to enhance investor returns.
The Irbis Index is a tool we are developing to reveal hidden correlations between global macroeconomic trends and events and the industries in which we’re investing.
The Index tracks the market by highlighting key trends of large players across related industries.
On the 5th of each month, we issue the updated Index covering the preceding month, along with all associated trends.
Source: finance.yahoo.com.
Irbis Index Key:
Industrial REITs: XLON:SGRO, XLON:BBOX, XLON:SHED, XLON:WHR
(New!) Cold Storage and Logistics: XNYS:COLD, XCSE:DFDS, XPAR:STF, NASDAQ: LINE
Lineage, following their IPO on 25th July, now replaces Nichirei in the Irbis Index
Road Freight: XNAS: JBHT, XNYS: XPO, XNAS:ODFL, XNYS:KNX
(New!) Industrial Manufacturers: NYSE: SW, XFRA:KGX, XAMS:CABKA, OTCM:DFKCY
On the 5th of July, Smurfit Kappa completed its acquisition of WestRock, forming Smurfit Westrock, one of the world’s largest packaging companies
Food Producers: XSWX:NESNE, XBRU:ABI, XPAR:BN, XAMS:HEIA, XLON:ABF
Food Retailers: XLON:AE08, XPAR:CA, XLON:SBRY, XAMS:AD
Food Production Equipment Manufacturers: XLON:0R33, XFRA:RAA, XLON:HWDN, OTCM:ELUXY
To find The Irbis Index for June 2024, click here.
Key Trends for July ‘24:
Relative stock performance (Aug ‘23 - Jul ‘24)
The S&P500 experienced a slight decline in July.
However, most industries tracked experienced an incline over the past month, with the most significant inclines experienced in Road Freight and Cold Storage and Logistics industries.
Meanwhile, the stock prices of Industrial Manufacturers and Food Producers have been experiencing a decline since May 2024.
Average EV/EBITA multiples
Due to the composition changes within the Cold Storage and Logistics and the Industrial Manufacturers industries, the multiples are no longer comparable in these industries to the month before.
It should be noted that Lineage went public at an IPO price of $78.00 per share, implying a 25.4x multiple.
Cold Storage and Logistics remains the industry tracked with the highest EV/EBITDA multiple of 21.26x.
On the other hand, Food Retailers continued to command the lowest EV/EBITDA multiple, though the industry recorded an increase in the average EV/EBITDA multiple from 4.99x in June to 5.40x in July.
Average Debt/Equity ratio (Industrial REITs)
The debt-to-equity ratio of Industrial REITs continued to decrease from 50.2% in May to 50.0% in June and 47.8% in July.
Top positive correlations
The largest positive correlation was observed the S&P500 and Meat, Fish, and Dairy for the third month in a row.
The top 5 correlations in May are the same as that in June, with varying orders.
Top negative correlations
The largest negative correlation was observed between Industrial REITs and Commodities (Energy) which reported a correlation of -0.70 last month.
Target price variations
In July, Cabka makes the list of top positive target price variations after dropping off the list for a month.
Also, after making the list for at least five consecutive months, Warehouse REIT has dropped off, and KION Group has taken its place.
This month, only Rational AG made the list of negative target price variations.
Energy
In July, all top sources of power remained the same as in June across all countries tracked on the Irbis Index, except Italy where the top source moved from 37% Hydropower in June to 29% Gas in July.
If you have any questions about The Irbis Index, please reply to this email with your inquiries, comments, or feedback.
Glossary:
Correlation: Statistical measure that determines how two variables move in relation to each other
Mean Absolute Error: Percentage deviation of predictions to observed prices over the past year
Actual Price: A company’s current value or its market value
Target Price: Indicator of how analysts collectively view the fair value of a given stock based on current and past market performance
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