📈 The Irbis Index June 2024

Welcome to the June 2024 edition of The Irbis Index!

We’re curious about new ways to leverage asymmetry of information to enhance investor returns.

The Irbis Index is a tool we are developing to reveal hidden correlations between global macroeconomic trends and events and the industries in which we’re investing. 

The Index tracks the market by highlighting key trends of large players across related industries.

On the 5th of each month, we issue the updated Index covering the preceding month, along with all associated trends.

Source: finance.yahoo.com.

To find The Irbis Index for May 2024, click here.

Key Trends for June ‘24:

Relative stock performance (Jul ‘23 - Jun ‘24) 

Despite a rise in the price of the S&P500, most of the industries tracked on the Irbis Index experienced a decline in prices over the month of June.

The most significant decrease occurred in the Road Freight industry, with prices dropping from 118% to 112% of their value a year ago.

Average EV/EBITA multiples

In June, the EV/EBITDA decreased across all industries tracked compared to May, apart from Road Freight which increased slightly from 14.27x in May.

However, across all industries, the change in multiple over the last month has not been significant.

Cold Storage and Logistics remains the industry tracked with the highest EV/EBITDA multiple, averaging 21.24x over the past 5 months.

On the other hand, Food Retailers continued to command the lowest EV/EBITDA multiple for at least six consecutive months, averaging 5.55x during that period.

Average Debt/Equity ratio (Industrial REITs)

The debt-to-equity ratio of Industrial REITs decreased slightly from 50.2% in May to 50.0% in June.

Top positive correlations

The largest positive correlation is between the S&P500 and Meat, Fish, and Dairy for the second month in a row.

The top 3 correlations in May are the same as in April, with varying orders.

The correlation of the S&P500 and the Meat, Fish, and Dairy industry made the list for the first time since February 2024.

Top negative correlations

The largest negative correlation was observed between Food Producers and Commodities (Energy), an absolute increase from its correlation of -0.60 last month.

Target price variations

In June, Cabka droped the list of top positive target price variations, making way for Electrolux (Home Appliance Manufacturer).

This is the first time in four months that Cabka has not appeared in the top four for positive price variations.

Meanwhile, Warehouse REIT makes the list for at least 5 consecutive months, suggesting that analysts remain optimistic about the company’s performance and prospects.

This month, only Rational AG made the list of negative target price variations, though improving slightly from its price variation of -22.3% in May 2024.

Sainsbury’s, a food retailer that previously made the list 3 months in a row, no longer has a negative price variation and instead has a +22% target price variation.

Energy

In June, all top sources of power remained the same across all countries tracked on the Irbis Index compared to May, with little variation in power sources.  

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