The Irbis Index September 2023

Welcome to this first edition of The Irbis Index!

The Index tracks the market by highlighting key trends of large players across related industries.

The Index is updated monthly and it sources the data from finance.yahoo.com.

Every month on the 5th you will receive the updated Index and all the related trends.

Key Trends for September:

Cold Storage and Logistics companies received an optimistic outlook from analysts in September with XPO receiving 6 up revisions, STEF 2 up revisions, FedEx 29 up revisions, Old Dominion Freight Line 9 up revisions.

None of the companies received downward revisions over the month.

In September, Cold Storage and Logistics commanded the highest EV/EBITDA multiple compared to other related industries.

The September Cold Storage and Logistics multiple is 17.6x, slightly lower than the one achieved in August of 18.3x.

The debt to equity ratio of Industrial REITs continues to fall – from 49.1% in July, 46.0% in August to 44.2% in September.

The largest positive correlation is between the S&P500 and Cold Storage & Logistics.

When the S&P500 is used to predict prices in Cold Storage and Logistics, the mean absolute error was only 1.6% over the past year.

The largest negative correlation is between Energy and Food Producers.

This suggests that when energy prices go up, food producers are most negatively affected.

Over the past year, the mean absolute error in using energy prices to predict food producers’ stock prices was 6.2%.

Compared to August, when logistics companies such as ODFL and XPO received target prices lower than their actual price, not many logistics companies had a discounted price target in September.

Sainsbury’s was the only company with a negative difference between its target price and actual price.

The average electricity prices in September increased only in France in September, with electricity prices falling in all other countries on the index.

The Netherlands experienced the largest price decrease over the month of September.

France consistently relies on Nuclear as their main source of power. In August, 61% of the country’s power was generated from Nuclear sources.

Meanwhile, Germany and the Netherlands, which relied heavily on Solar power (>30%) in August, have shifted to Wind power in September (>50%).

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