The Irbis Index November 2023

Welcome to the November 2023 edition of The Irbis Index!

The Index tracks the market by highlighting key trends of large players across related industries.

On the 5th of each month, we issue the updated Index covering the preceding month, along with all associated trends.

Source: finance.yahoo.com.

To find The Irbis Index for October 2023, click here.

Key Trends for Novenber:

Relative stock performance (Nov ‘22 - Nov ‘23) 

Cold Storage & Logistics companies showed the largest average change in price, increasing rapidly since June 2023 with average prices now landing at 142% of what they were a year ago.

Other industries have also observed increases in share prices, although not as significant.

Only Industrial REITs and Food Production Equipment Manufacturers have observed an average share price decrease over the past year.

Average EV/EBITA multiples

In November, Cold Storage and Logistics continued to achieve the highest EV/EBITDA multiple compared to other tracked industries, despite the multiple falling slightly from 17.60x in October to 17.35x in November.

Food Retailers continued to command the lowest EV/EBITDA multiple, with the multiple continuing to fall each month.

Overall, there is not a huge variation in multiples over the past month, with the biggest change observed being the multiple for Food Production Equipment increasing by 5.1% from 8.26x in October to 8.68x in November.

Average Debt/Equity ratio (Industrial REITs)

The debt-to-equity ratio of Industrial REITs fell from 44.8% in October to 42.4% in November.

This ratio falls below the September figure of 44.2%, which was previously the lowest debt-to-equity ratio observed in our dataset since the Irbis Index first began in July 2023.

Top positive correlations

The largest positive correlation continues to be between the S&P500 and Cold Storage & Logistics, increasing from 0.91 in October to 0.92 in November.

This suggests that among all industries tracked, Cold Storage and Logistics is seen to correlate most to changes in prices of the S&P500.

Top negative correlations

The largest negative correlation was observed between Commodities (Grains) and Commodities (Metals).

Target price variations

Warehouse REIT, and Smurfit Kappa continue to top the list of positive price variation.

Electrolux AB (home appliances manufacturer) and KION Group (forklift manufacturer) ranked lower this month, with Nestle and Tesco making the list in November.

Nestle received 18 up revisions from analysts over the past month, while Tesco only received 1 upward revision.

Although Associated British Foods makes the list this month for one of the top negative price variation, the food producer did receive 15 upward revisions from analysts over the past month.

This suggests that the increase in the share price of Associated British Foods (16.8% increase in price over the past month) was much larger than analysts had targeted, despite the generally positive outlook.

Energy

Electricity prices generally increased across all countries on the index except for Italy, and Spain.

Italy had also observed a decrease in average prices in October. 

France and Belgium consistently rely on nuclear as their main source of energy.

Meanwhile, many other countries that relied on Wind in October, such as Germany, (44% Wind), Luxembourg (24% Wind), the Netherlands (31% Wind), and Great Britain (47% Wind), have moved towards Coal and Gas in November.

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